Two numbers, labeled honestly

The backtest, and the real thing.

Backtests are optimistic by nature. The live numbers are what actually happened, as they accumulate.

لوحة الاستراتيجية

محفظة المالك، والاختبار الرجعي للقواعد، ومؤشر S&P 500

لوحة واحدة يوضَّح فيها كل رقم بما يقيسه فعليًا.

761 backtested trades 70.7% backtest win rate Backtested historical results — not live performance 0 open signals
الاختبار الرجعي للقواعد — Separate hypothetical YTD time-weighted return
S&P 500 — SPY adjusted-close proxy
Backtest excess — Rules backtest minus benchmark
Selected performance view Year to date
Rules backtest
S&P 500

What each line is

Owner portfolio
Self-reported and not independently verified. One person's own account, 2026-01-01 to 2026-07-30. From 2026-07-30 onward the line is not a brokerage balance at all — it is a modelled continuation that moves only when a published case resolves. Treat the join at 2026-07-30 as the point where reporting stops and modelling begins.
Rules backtest
Simulated. Nobody traded this money. Covers 2003-08-01 → 2026-06-30. No transaction costs, no slippage, every fill assumed at the recorded price. It cannot account for filing delay or for everyone acting on the same public information at once.
S&P 500 (SPY)
Adjusted-close index performance over the same period shown. A reference line only — it is not something this site produced.

These three are kept separate deliberately. Past results, reported or simulated, do not indicate future results. How each number is produced →

How to read the chart: the lime line reconstructs the owner portfolio path from dated closed-trade results and dividends in the supplied Trading 212 export, normalized to the owner-reported 85.0% YTD result on 2026-07-30. It is not a daily brokerage equity curve. New bot signals are added as markers. Open signals do not change performance; after a signal resolves, its published model-allocation percentage multiplied by its percentage gain or loss updates the continuation. Signals without a published allocation remain markers only. The blue line is SPY. Not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.

Hypothetical backtest · simulated, not traded

Rules backtest, 2003-08-01 → 2026-06-30

Simulated performance of the scoring rules over historical filings. No transaction costs, no slippage, and every fill assumed at the recorded price. Nobody traded this money.

4297.69%
Cumulative ROI  ?
26.53%
XIRR (money-weighted)  ?
23.09%
Time-weighted CAGR  ?
$56,200
Total deposited
$2,415,300
Profit
70.7%
Backtest win rate
-23.47%
Max drawdown
761
Positions evaluated
538
Winning positions
223
Losing positions
22
Average days held

Hover any metric for what it means. XIRR and time-weighted CAGR are computed live from the daily equity ledger — not hardcoded.

Hypothetical backtest, not investor performance: this is a simulation, not a live track record. It can carry survivorship bias and does not capture every real-world cost or friction. See methodology for assumptions on fees, slippage, and entry timing.
Out of sample

Live results

Live track record is still building. This updates automatically as real trades close — shown honestly empty rather than hidden.